PROBABILITY

The rather startling mathematical conclusion from Probability is that you really must not exist. Even more discomforting is the parallel fact – note fact – absolutely proven in Book One - that the experience at Sinai is also proven to be impossible to fake and doubly impossible to impose on future generations. 

You 

may, begrudgingly, have to concede, as we prove later, some convocation and religious gathering at a Middle Eastern mountain more than 2500 years ago. Who cares? So it happened – a vast Guilt-Fest by the Jews. However, Judaism must be a myth. This is the ultimate truth for the secular Jew – otherwise what on earth is he doing with his life? He must hide behind this fig leaf.

Nobody believes in purple dragons breathing green fire. Why? Because no one has ever seen one. Simple.

Similarly, no one we know has scientific, ocular proof that anyone has ever seen, heard or experienced the Almighty.

Ah, for once we agree!

This problem of the ‘lack of any personal experience of the supernatural syndrome’ is a point we must discuss – but it is utterly irrelevant here. We are examining cold hard facts and mathematical probabilities and not your degree of scepticism. In pure logic we must ignore our personal cynical response and any instinctive disbelief. The question before the court is what is the probability of Sinai – however ‘unbelievable’ – being a myth or true in purely mathematical terms.

So, to the calculator.

Consider: What are the odds in probability of the Jewish Myth being unique?

Today we know of no religion that has tried the Sinai-type public revelation argument – myth. We are told that there have been roughly 50000 religions in the last 4000 years. Today, there are about 8000 – 10000 across the globe. About 40000 have disappeared with little trace. We examine this number later.

None claims more than an unwitnessed – again note unwitnessed – private revelation to a single person – or very small group – by a god, angel, messianic figure or other spiritual visitation. None have a living, traceable familial chain to a mass simultaneous revelation. Only the Jews had the stupidity or chutzpah to try that one.

All claim proof from the miracles performed. All these would prove in court is that ‘he’ was a …. Miracle worker but not the ultimate saviour of mankind.

Maimonides very clearly dismisses miracles as proof. In c 1220 he wrote, ‘The Jews did not believe in Moses because of the miracles … If one believes in something because of miracles, he may suspect that they were performed through trickery 

We know only of one example of our story that survived – Judaism. And if all the others disappeared during the last 4000 years, we can learn first, that by disappearing they over-whelmingly 

reduce the odds of our Sinai ‘myth’ surviving – and secondly, that they disappeared precisely because the story was unsustainable. But we are here??

And, yes, the undiscovered Wunga-Woogu YaTaTa tribe may have today exactly such a belief and eat bagels. Now, I am sure they are very fine people and make excellent bagels, but as we do not yet know of them, I hope you will allow me to ignore them.

Thus we can postulate that religious ‘nonsense’ like the Jewish Sinai Myth can appear only once in 4000 years and survive – because our unique claim has done so. Of 50,000 religions only one has had the chutzpah to try it. And who has oodles of chutzpah??

 You are living proof of 1:50000 chance actually occurring. In probability this way past ‘impossible’. You really are impossible – as my wife always says of my goodself. Yes, survival does not equate to the truth of our narrative – but it still is unnatural – or even supern…..